Farmerjan's journal - Weather

farmerjan

Herd Master
Joined
Aug 16, 2016
Messages
12,249
Reaction score
49,439
Points
758
Location
Shenandoah Valley Virginia
@Mini Horses , you are right about the "what am I thinking thing"..... and when there is a bumper year like this year it makes you worry that there won't be any next year. Like last year when the peaches were "frozen out" early and the apple crop was small, and all the rain and wet.

Had a complete change of plans yesterday. Son called in the morning and said the cows were down near the "lane" and that we needed to get them in and ship a load of calves. I was barely up and coherent after the long afternoon Thurs. So I said I would be up in awhile. He got them to come down the lane which runs alongside the other pasture fence, across the driveway, and into the barnyard. We sorted the calves out, got a load of 8 steers from this bunch, and 4 from the small group of odd weaned calves we had there, and I wound up taking the load of 12 to town. He was going to go rake and do some work there at the barn. So I got to town, unloaded, he texted and said he would come in and watch the sale as soon as he got done raking. I wound up eating some lunch there, he got there the sale started and I left in the other truck to come home and get some stuff done. He bought a cow/calf pair for $500.... decent looking cow.... that should tell you how prices were. He also "no saled" 2 of the steers that would have brought barely $1.00 lb. Sold the other 10 for about $.20/.30 less per pound than what we were hoping to get. They brought in the 1.20 range and 4-6 weeks ago they were in the 1.40 + range for the comparable size. Talk is that it is going to "soften" even more through the fall. The only saving grace is that overall the steers weighed about 50 to 100 lbs more than he thought, so we made up a little in increased weight what they lost in price per lb. I haven't seen the check yet. Heifer calves in the 500 lb range were barely $1.00, and he left to come home before they sold more than a couple pens..... because in the meantime, he talked to the vet and he could come do the pregnancy checks on that group of cows after 4 p.m. So, it was a very long afternoon.

So the end result was that we averaged about $700 per calf, at an average weight of 600 lbs., but there was an extra 2-3 months of grass/feed in them. But if you figure it another way, we spent less than what one calf brought, and got a cow and calf pair. So got 2, for the price of one calf, and MAYBE in the spring, this calf will bring a decent price.

The good thing is all cows that were checked were pregnant but 3. The bad news is most were not near as far along as they should have been. I expected them to mostly be in the 6-7 month range, with calving mostly in Nov. Nope, most were only 4-5 so will be calving in Dec/Jan????? Not my idea of fun, but at least they were mostly all pregnant. This group of cows did not do as well as normal at this pasture, they seemed to struggle, and the calves seemed to grow a bit more slowly. Maybe because they were late calving to start with. The effects from the extreme wet in 2018, and the poor quality hay has had lasting effects. Supplementing with additional protein tubs will be something we will have to consider this year, yet another expense that the calf prices really cannot justify. And with all this I said, we are missing a couple of cows....

So after we got done with the pregnancy check and were moving cows around, my son said hey, there are some cows on the hill. I had just said that I was missing a couple of cows from the list of who was supposed to be up there. Sure enough, here are 4 cows, and 3 calves that were who knows where way up back, and 2 were real nice sized steer calves that should have gone to the sale with the others. So these couple of cows will have to be preg checked and the calves will have to be dealt with. Have a couple of cows that were late calving, in June/July that we have to band the calves and give shots too, so have about a dozen to work through. The one saving grace, is these 2 steers are pretty nice, so at least they are found and can be sold, not missing/dead somewhere. But this is one of the things that doing something last minute makes it not as efficient, as if I had had more time to "prepare" I would have been able to check cow numbers and see that we were missing some cows before we started.

When you have animals, you have to realize that they cost money to take care of properly. The more intense you manage, the better the return to a point. With small animals, like the goats and sheep, there is a faster turnaround on the offspring, but there is more intense management like worming and foot trimming..... goats seem to me to be even more demanding than sheep with their copper needs and such. But we have always had a decent return on the management of the cattle, within normal years. The past couple have thrown a real monkey wrench in it. Since the high prices in 2013-2014, the prices have dropped and the weather has made it to where there is "no normal". You cannot justify spending more on the cows than you can realistically expect in a return, for more than a year or two hoping that it will turn around. Protein tubs cost money, and with depressed prices, you might not be able to justify the increased weight gains in the end result.

On another note, we are still waiting on the guy to harvest the corn for silage. He has had several breakdowns, and the corn is fast drying out. It looks like it will be maybe Tuesday. There is a possibility that we will be using another farmers' trucks, and if things do not get put together, this other farmer may be doing it all for us. Which will be more out of our pocket because then we will be keeping all the corn for silage, not working out the "partnership" in which we would have had very little output in actual money. It just seems like there is one thing after another. There have been several accidents this year with farmers and trucks.... 2 different ones have turned over their trucks hauling silage on steep hills. No one seriously hurt, but the loss of the truck bodies, and that has left them short so more time involved in getting each field done. If the chopper has to wait on a truck to get to it to continue chopping, you are paying for the time he sits idle.... you pay for the truck and driver and the person working the bagger at the place the silage is being unloaded, of where it is being blown up into a silo. It is like a dance, and all the partners have to be in sync or you get a traffic jam....that costs money out of pocket you cannot recover.

For what little we plant, 14 acres this year, it doesn't pay to have all your own equipment for the chopping process that we will only use for a week or two at most. We wouldn't have put the corn in if the one farmer hadn't asked us because he was needing more corn ground for silage and a partnership was beneficial to us both. We would have put in grain sorghum again and made it into silage like last year. The timing is a little better/more forgiving in getting it harvested.

Well, I have got to go out and haul water to the meat chickens, then get the milk testing meters and stuff loaded on the truck, so I can go to work. Going to be a long day again, although this is a small 70 cow farm... just because it is an hour away, I have to set up and then take down the meters after milking and the wash system gets done. I will be gone for about 7 hours total.... and I hate having to be inside when it is so nice out and a bit cooler so very comfortable. Oh well, it could be 90 again and muggy and hot....
 

Senile_Texas_Aggie

Herd Master
Joined
Jun 3, 2018
Messages
1,870
Reaction score
5,466
Points
343
Location
western Arkansas
Gosh, Miss @farmerjan, it is a wonder you don't go crazy from all you have to do, and with so many factors outside of your control! I wish there were some way we could help. All we can do is sympathize and pray (some of us, anyway)!

Senile Texas Aggie
 

Senile_Texas_Aggie

Herd Master
Joined
Jun 3, 2018
Messages
1,870
Reaction score
5,466
Points
343
Location
western Arkansas
Miss @farmerjan,

I just finished reading an article on Successful Farmer about buying call options (see https://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/buying-a-call-option-makes-ense-analyst-says ). Regarding futures and futures options, I know just enough to be dangerous (but I am also smart enough not to dabble in that just yet), but I know you are a smart lady and if you didn't know that much about them (you probably already do), then you could easily learn. I mention that because you mentioned this:

He also "no saled" 2 of the steers that would have brought barely $1.00 lb. Sold the other 10 for about $.20/.30 less per pound than what we were hoping to get. They brought in the 1.20 range and 4-6 weeks ago they were in the 1.40 + range for the comparable size. Talk is that it is going to "soften" even more through the fall.

Had you bought a put option, then as the price of cattle fell, the put option would have risen in value, compensating for the lower prices that you received. Had you bough the put option and cattle prices rose, then you would have lost at most the cost of the put, but you would have benefited from the rising cattle prices. Optional, had you sold a call option on cattle, you would have made a fixed amount of money on the sale of the option if cattle prices had fallen, but you would have lost money if cattle prices rose.

All of the above is predicated on the assumption that cattle prices move more or less in the same direction across the country AND that the call and put options represent about the same amount of cattle that you plan on selling. If either of these assumptions are incorrect, then this strategy might not work.

I mention all of this because I really hate to see you and your son work so hard and be at the mercy of factors beyond your control, such as the price of cattle. If you can harness the powers of the futures and options markets to help your income be more stable, then I would hope that would make for a (slightly more) restful night's sleep.

If you like, I can go off and do some research on this.

Senile Texas Aggie
 

farmerjan

Herd Master
Joined
Aug 16, 2016
Messages
12,249
Reaction score
49,439
Points
758
Location
Shenandoah Valley Virginia
@Senile_Texas_Aggie . I do not understand the whole thing with futures and options. It has been explained to me a couple of times, once by a cattleman that really was trying to make it make sense, and I just don't get it. Plus we don't have a set number of cattle to sell at any one time, nor do we have the numbers that I seem to understand that is necessary to make it work. There is alot of talk that there should not be "trading of live cattle" on the markets at all. It turns out that the only ones that actually ever seem to make any money on it are the traders, not the actual farmers. And there is something to do with the "actually taking possession" of the cattle too. Honestly, it is just something that I can not seem to get my head around, no matter who has tried to explain it to me. Must be some kind of defective gene in my brain. I say that a bit tongue in cheek, but actually really do think there is just something that I am lacking to be able to understand it. I have also been told that it doesn't work for the cow/calf operator.... just for those that do backgrounding or those that put cattle on feed. I don't know. Maybe I will try to figure it out again when I am sitting with my ankle "up in the air" inbetween therapy sessions!!!!! Don't think that it would be a workable option for only a couple of calves here and there.

None of this would be such a big deal if it wasn't for the whole Tyson plant fire, and the actual "raping" of the farmer and the public in their selfish interest in making a fortune by manipulating the prices on both ends.
Prices here are about .20 to .30 lower than in the midwest. It is in part due to the transportation costs of moving cattle from this area to other areas where they are backgrounded or fed out. Used to be more options, but consolidation has hurt that, and that is in part due to the "big 4" buying out and acquiring so many of the smaller places. Again, it goes to controlling the markets just like the poultry and hog markets have gotten.

If it was only me that was too dense to get it and do all the market options, then maybe I would say okay, I am just too thick to get it. But there are alot of farmers that deal in bigger numbers of cattle here, and a couple of the guys are pretty savvy, and they don't do it as I have asked in the past. And there are several that only run 25-50 cows too. Trying to figure this out. It seems that they say the best way to try to make a bit more per head is for us to get together and market as a co-operative type thing with following a certain protocol with vaccinations, and requirements, and then co-mingling our cattle with others of the same size/age/weight..... We are members of our newly formed county cattle assoc., and some of the guys on this are pretty darn smart. One markets alot of registered cattle, and he for one said that he does not do any "trading of cattle futures" and he is a sight smarter than me on things like that.

So maybe that is something for you to do @Senile_Texas_Aggie ..... become my teacher on trading cattle on the electronic market...... Hey, if you could make it understandable to me you would deserve a medal.....

Saw the check and after commissions and all were paid out of they check, they netted about $630 a head.... I think. Still , one "steer" bought a cow/calf pair.... so we ought to come up okay on that I hope. It is a heifer calf so won't be worth as much as a steer, but if it grows okay, then we will be okay.

Tested the 70 cow herd this afternoon. The guy milking there may be leaving.... he has been there for a couple of years, but wants his own place again. This was supposed to be a short term deal til he found a farm he wanted so he could have his registered cows. He has owned his own dairy before then sold out and went south to where his son lived and farmed there but likes it up here better so came back about 3 years ago. I don't think his wife liked it in Tenn, not sure what part... but she is not the type to be able to get along with "slower more laid back farm type people". She is a nurse and likes to be in a metropolitan type area. Here there is both in close proximity so it works for her. Don't know what this will mean down the road as this is where I get the meat birds..... Oh well, we'll see.

Past time to go to bed .... it was a gorgeous day today and supposed to be a carbon copy for the next day or 2.... WORKS
FOR ME !!!! Love the little bit cooler, clean, crisp, not so humid sticky, weather.
 

Mini Horses

Herd Master
Joined
Sep 4, 2015
Messages
11,805
Reaction score
39,859
Points
758
Location
S coastal VA
Love the little bit cooler, clean, crisp, not so humid sticky, weather

Me, too! :D It's lovely to wake to slightly crisp, warm up to comfortable, go down slowly at night. I am not a COLD weather person. Fortunately, here in VA we are pretty mellow weather wise. You get more snow, thankfully I don't.:D =D
 

farmerjan

Herd Master
Joined
Aug 16, 2016
Messages
12,249
Reaction score
49,439
Points
758
Location
Shenandoah Valley Virginia
Well, we have had a busy couple of days. Tested the 500 cow herd Monday afternoon and it went pretty smooth. Son came to help after he got off work so got there right at 4:30 when they start. I had gone early and got all the samplers set up on the line. Got home about 10:30 that night.
I had taken some hoses up to the barn so they could run water over to the bagger if the corn was too dry. They did get it done on Tuesday and there was a lower section in the field that the corn was a little greener, so it all mixed in pretty well and didn't need the water to offset, so that is very good. It is a 150 ft bag, so after tying the end and the fold over on the other end so it will seal so it can ensile, it is about 120 ft long FULL of corn silage. The farmer that we were doing the partnership thing with did finally do the chopping, he had some more problems with the combine, but they got it done. Son is figuring that he will owe us some money, due to the amount of silage they got, which will pay for the 2 trucks that were hauling our silage and renting the bagger and the cost of the bag, and the cost to chop. Bag cost alone is like $400 and you can't save or reuse them. Such a waste of the plastic, but there aren't any other options except building a bunker silo or an upright and you don't do that on rented farms. So basically what we did, is he planted the corn, we paid for the seed, we paid for all the fertilizer. Then we paid him for the chopping, we paid for our own hauling and the bag and bagger. We then "sold him" all the corn silage that he hauled to his farm. We figure he will owe us some money since he got quite a bit of silage and it was pretty decent stuff. Don't know if they kept any to get it tested to see what the relative feed value is. Corn silage is valued at $50 /ton here, so if he got 140 ton that is about 7,000. It cost us $250. for the truck my son drove (50/hr 5 hrs) and $375(75/hr for 5 hrs for the other guy with his truck). Then I think they get $150 or $200/hr for the chopper, so say 1,000; bagger rent and the bag was about 1,500. Cost of the corn seed was about 1,000 I think. Yes seed corn is like 250/50 lb bag.... So I am thinking that he may owe us about 2500.... It turned out well after all the agnst..... They got about 140 tons and we got about 120....they figure about 1 ton per foot of bag as it is a 9 ft diameter bag. Think I have my math right.... hmmmm have to check with him again. Anyway, the yield was good and it was in better shape than we thought. Plus it is done.

Good thing because we wound up getting one of those stray "pop up" showers on Wed aft. Like it started to thunder, and then a lightning strike so close that cracked like it was in the yard, and then poured down and wind blew. Lasted about a half hour but it came down during that time. Looked at the radar, and there was a line all along the I-81 corridor, headed east and it hit from above Harrisonburg to below Lexington in a line and just went right over us. About 3:30 pm, rain about 4-4:30 then gone by 5:30. Got just shy of .6 inch here at the house but definitely less 5 miles up the hill at the chickens and the barn. So it is a very good thing that my son didn't cut any of the hay he was thinking about on Sunday as it would not have gotten baled.

Instead we worked a few oddball cows that were at the barn through the chute. Banded a couple of bull calves, gave black leg shots and moved 4 old cows with their calves to a pasture that hasn't had anything on it. They will be leaving at the end of the season. We had put some other younger cows there, but the fences are not very good up in the woods, and they kept getting out so just pulled them out and put them elsewhere. These old cows will be unlikely to "try" the old fences way up in the woods where it is very steep to climb. Did reinforce the fences in a couple more places, but they need to be torn down and new fence built. You can only patch and fix so much then it just needs replacing. These fences have been there for probably 40-50 years. Rented place and it isn't that great of a pasture but has been a good place to put a small number of cattle that need to be "away from" other cattle as there are no other animals anywhere around the fences. All woods surrounding it, until this year they logged off the one place that adjoins it. No bulls just across the fence to cause problems with animals getting out and such. Has a pond and small creek for water and easy access to set up a portable pen to catch and move stuff out. The cows will be content and the calves should stick pretty close to mommas so don't think we will have any more "roamers". My son and the owner have discussed the fence situation and something will get done before next year. He was very upset that we hadn't put cows in there this year, then heard all about the different ones being out and going up the road and all, so guess he finally realized that we really were serious about the fences are just shot.

Had to take the portable corral panels to another farm and get a cow out that has a swollen leg and looks like she night have some wire that got wrapped around it out at pasture. Son pulled the bull out at the same time so we will have a "defined" time that these cows should be calving. We try to get the bulls in and out in a 90 day time frame so the calves all come within a defined "calving window" but the last 2 years we just haven't gotten it done. This group of cows are the ones that came up open and should have been calving now. They should all be bred and will calve in the spring. They "lost 6 months" but we didn't sell them because the prices were so low so decided to rebreed them. Any that are not bred this time will get culled. They are in good body condition, didn't have any calves on them so didn't get pulled down nutritionally, so have absolutely no reason to not all be pregnant. They are also fairly young cows, so should be very fertile. I am going to go look at her in a little bit when I go up there and haul more water and feed to the chickens.

@Baymule , these meat birds weigh probably over 10 lbs at least now. They are huge. Sure hope they sell good at the chicken swap on the 21st of Sept... They have sure been eating alot lately. Of the 20 I got this last time, have 15 that survived, and probably will take maybe half of them with the big ones to the swap. If I get $5 each for the smaller ones I am ahead of it. There will be another group about the 5-10th of Oct if there are any small ones left behind, when the next time the "chickens go out" at this farm. Anything I get, and any I have left will get fed and then processed before my ankle surgery in January. Tried to call yesterday but the one person I needed to talk to was off, so I said I would call back. They told me to call mid Sept.....

Tested another 240 cow herd Tues eve/wed morning. They test 2 consecutive milkings. Long afternoon and morning. Brought my semen tank home from this farm where it was, and will try to get the couple of cows bred to that Wagyu bull for the owners' son at the one place we rent. Got a couple of other odd cows there that I will also breed AI to a beef bull and 2 jerseys that I will breed to jersey or guernsey. They won't be due until June/July, so shouldn't conflict with any surgery/recovery I have. There are about 4 heifers that are jersey/hol cross that are old enough to get bred and I may just go on and breed them too, and see about getting calves out of them and use them for nurse cows next year. I can stagger their breedings so that they aren't all calving at once.... Since I am not going to sell them anytime soon, they may as well have calves next year and raise a couple extras themselves.

Getting hotter and muggy. Supposed to get some more pop up showers and then some more serious chance of rain on Friday. Time to go haul water to the chickens, and look at that cow in the barn lot with the swollen leg.

Need to go see about a new pair of glasses. My eyes didn't change at the last yearly eye exam, but these glasses are getting pretty worn and are going to come apart one day. I need a second pair and then I can get these repaired and use one pair for good and one for "barn work". At least no more farms to test this week unless someone calls me last minute. Will have maybe 2 or 3 to do next week. My son leaves Sunday with his co-worker, to head to Miss to the Regional DOT Roadeo. They will have a day of practice on Tuesday. He wants to take 2 days to go, see a little of the countryside on his way, competition is Wed and Thurs, they leave Fri and will get home on Sat. I will be at the chicken swap on Sat. All I will have to do is check cows and maybe take some mineral/salt to a few pastures besides feeding and watering his and my chickens, and his sheep. The heifers haven't started calving yet but should start soon. Got some cows that will be calving now that they have started but they are experienced so don't anticipate any problems there. If we get a little rain, then won't have to worry about any water; it has gotten dry lately, but water troughs are holding up okay. Only got one place I worry about, and it has been okay, the spring has been a little slow to refill, but not to where I have felt the need to haul any water to supplement.
 

RollingAcres

Herd Master
Joined
Jun 27, 2017
Messages
3,211
Reaction score
9,490
Points
463
Location
Capital Region NY
Wow such busy week for you!

Good thing because we wound up getting one of those stray "pop up" showers on Wed aft.
Yeah, good thing.

There's a field that I drive by everyday...almost a month ago they(not sure who) cut and baled it. But now a month later the round bales are still sitting in the field not picked up. It had rained many times since then so I'd imagine the hay had to be all moldy inside. :idunno
 

farmerjan

Herd Master
Joined
Aug 16, 2016
Messages
12,249
Reaction score
49,439
Points
758
Location
Shenandoah Valley Virginia
Are round bales like 4 or 5 ft tall and wide? There will be some weathering on the outside, and if there is exceptionally wet weather, there will be a bit more rot. But those are left/stored outside here all year. We try to get them moved fairly soon after baling because running over the ground when the grass has regrown only hurts it and makes tracks. Plus the grass under the bale can't grow. Other than that, we store about 1000 outside in rows usually along the edges of the fields where we make them. This way, they aren't in the way to make a later cutting and we are not driving all over the field on new growing grass. There is a guy here who makes little round bales, like small square bales but they are actually miniature round bales. Now those will get wet all the way through and mold. I think is was a short lived fad to make the small round ones. The big ones will get wet down about 4-8 inches and that will become black, inedible stuff that actually makes for great mulch hay. And we don't get too upset because it puts back organic matter into the soil in the fields where it is fed, and gives the cows a drier place to lay in the winter if there is snow and wet conditions on the ground. But because they are rolled so tight, the water just never seeps further in and that is one of the reasons why they are stored outside.

We figure you lose about 2-4 square bales worth of the hay out of a 5x5 or 5x6 roll. Since there are about 20-25 small sq bales per roll, it is significant, but in the terms of not having storage space for 10,000 sq bales, and more importantly, not having the manpower to load and unload and then handle again to feed, that is not too big a price to pay. If we had a farm that we wanted to call our "homeplace" it would be sensible to build a hay storage shed that we could stack 2-500 in at least and be able to store under cover the very best. Then you could justify having the expense as you would be saving about 1,000 sq bale worth of hay on every 500 that were undercover. We have so much trouble getting any help nowadays to make the square bales, that in just labor and help alone we save alot of money with making the big round bales. That is why the big round bales were "invented". A farmer could do his whole hay crop by himself if necessary.
 

Senile_Texas_Aggie

Herd Master
Joined
Jun 3, 2018
Messages
1,870
Reaction score
5,466
Points
343
Location
western Arkansas
Miss @RollingAcres is right -- you did have a busy week!

Thanks for explaining all about the hay and round bales versus square bales. I live to watch YouTube videos of hay making. It makes me think of you and your son baling hay.

Senile Texas Aggie
 
Top