I'm nervous too. So far no swarm. It's a big hive though. Already have one honey super full,but not capped. The second super is on now, and we have had rain almost every day for 3 weeks.
From my understanding... As a general rule, the queen will not cross over stored honey. so if your frames are looking "proper" with a honey band in the upper corners and the frames in the first super are full of honey, the queen will not cross that "honey band" and should stay in the bottom deeps.