Shortages

[farmerjan]

The weather has gone crazy here again. We had 80's and things were looking like "spring" was here. Then we had 2 " snow, then warmer, then cold rain and HAIL.... and then warmed up some and now back to chilly, cold, raw temps and some possible scattered frosts... the thing is, this cold for 2-3 days, with cold rain and all, chills the ground temps and all the corn that is already planted here will not germinate in the cold temps... and if it gets too wet, it will rot instead of germinate... something to really think about. Alot of the corn here either goes into silage or goes to the poultry growers assocs like Pilgrims and Cargill, and feeds the broilers and turkeys and layers.... less corn means less poultry too....
There are more wildfires in the west; New Mexico has had a bad one that was causing several towns to be evacuated... this does a number on wildlife habitat, and crop and grazing land.
This cold and warm temp swings here is bad for the hay... I see grass already starting to make seed heads and it is not even knee high.... natures way of trying to perpetuate the crop by producing seed that will hopefully germinate in better climate conditions.... these cold snaps after record warm temps are not helping the crops. Our first cutting hay looks like it will be short... less tonnage...

 

[farmerjan]

Gas went up here Sat... was 3.99 before I left for the poultry swap... my tank was full. I filled up at 4.04 when I got back and..... it is now 4.11 and 4.19 at the different stations... Diesel up to 5.89 here... it will hit 6.00 before another week I think.

 

[Baymule]

I’m paying the equivalent of a new car note, just in diesel each month. What are people going to do? This cannot continue.

 

[Mini Horses]

Same here. $3.99 grudgingly paid on Fri before swap. $4.15 on Sun after

Diesel only in tractor....that's steady climbing. It's bad.

I can say with temps and rain the grass is exploding here! Looking at 30-35 acres across street that's hayed -- it's gonna be a great first cut, IF WE CAN GET a span of dry for him to cut and dry. That's not looking good. Parts are trying to seed and a coastal front keeping it raining thru at least the weekend. . I'm not complaining about my pastures though. Hope summer doesn't bring heat extremes but, probably will!

So many weather issues going wrong!

 

[farmerjan]

@Mini Horses ... you ought to consider getting 2 steers and putting one in the freezer and selling the other. Buy at 6-700 lbs... sell one at 9-1000... maybe to a neighbor....for beef???? Eat the other one.... Prices are down when you get over the 6-650 wts... and by the time they are 1,000 lbs, prices stay stable....and you would get the weight gain on the grass alone.... Prices are not going to go down... we are going to sell a few more head of feeder size....4-5 wts.... to cut back on our numbers... and sell another 6 cows tomorrow... to try to get more in line with what I think the hay situation is going to be... we are now thinking we should have put in 20 acres of corn instead of the 14-15 that they are planting tomorrow...
Some of the slaughter houses are opening up with dates... many people over booked and now there are cancellations around. Don't mow that grass.... make something eat it...
Not that I don't want to sell you beef... but I think about all the grass you say you have... figure 1 steer per 1 1/2 acres... rotate around ... 2 steers would gain good at that weight. That's what I want to start doing... buying some at 6-7 wts and selling at 9-1,000.... have 4-6 months in them... on good grass they should gain 1 1/2 to 3 lbs a day... so figure 2 lbs... that's 60 lbs a month. 4 months ought to put on 200-250 lbs.....

There is talk about shortages of corn since many farmers are going to soybeans because the input costs are less... fertilizer and such... that is going to make less corn for feed rations... more costly... and they will turn to wheat and other grains to try to make up for it... so will push the prices of them up too....We are hoping for the wheat we have planted that we were going to make into hay then plant corn.....that instead we are going to harvest if the grain is decent.... for it to bring in the neighborhood of $9-12 a bushel... then go back and plant soybeans behind it for harvest as either hay or beans if the season is good.... We are putting the corn in a different field; across from me, that we can't keep the deer off the winter cover crops... and if it does decent we will put it in corn again next year then go back to a hay field of orchard grass... because we cannot grow wheat with the deer demolishing it through the winter...most wheat gets planted in the fall for harvesting the following June/July.....we always used it as a cover crop but not in this field anymore.

As soon as I can get the bottom slide fixed for my big 4 ton grain bin, I am going to get it filled with feed for the cows.... insurance hedge against the higher prices I see coming. And I am going to see about getting the one at the barn filled too. It is not going to get cheaper... Like all the tanks we filled with diesel earlier... at $2.47 and 3.19 for off-road..... it will get us through this hay season.... don't know how we will afford it next year. If we have a recession, prices will fall on some things... maybe we will be able to hit it better then....

 

[Baymule]

I wish I had already been moved and my diesel tank set up! Oh well. Brilliant move to fill everything y’all had.
@Mini Horses growing out a couple of steers is a good idea. I’m still eating beef from the steer I raised. Plus if you rotate them around your pastures, they can help break worm cycles in your goats.

 

[Mini Horses]

Farmer planted 12 acres of corn next to me. Coming up well! Glad to see that for him. Not sure what they are planting on other side, 40 acres. Will know soon

@farmerjan cattle don't sell here like there....few actual herds. Those seem to go to auctions up by Blackstone ? You find some with a few Dexter's or Jersey that they want big $$ as breeders. I could come to your area, even counting time and gas, to buy for less. Even dairy bottle kids, $150+. There's a goat auction this Sat. Some buyers there can give me info for when/where on other auction. To be realistic, the meat goat kids sell well and can end up bringing close to same money results, after feed, etc considered, in my area. Hay....we both know how that is going. Most of the rolled, I have to travel 50-100 miles, then transport. That's a toll for not being able to get but 2 or 3 a trip. I can store it under cover and probably will this yr. DS just got a big, older car/equip trailer. More per load but, my truck isnt that big...tractor can't handle those 1k ones.

 

[Baymule]

People may be willing to buy a half of a beef. You could probably pay for yours and have free beef to share with family.

 

[Blue Sky]

What an informative thread. I’ve put back goods periodically for years and they’ve come in handy. When we get to the new place we will start on storage we couldn’t manage here. I think things will get better but not before an all-star clown show.

 

[Alaskan]

What an informative thread. I’ve put back goods periodically for years and they’ve come in handy. When we get to the new place we will start on storage we couldn’t manage here. I think things will get better but not before an all-star clown show.

Most likely