Farmerjan's journal - Weather

[farmerjan]

Wanted to add, but hit the post button. For anyone that is at all up on the beef/cattle markets.... there was a huge fire at the Finney Co. processing plant in Ks. It is the Tyson slaughter plant for their select beef label I think. 1200 employees on that shift, evacuated safely. Damage assessments being made but it will be closed for months at least . They process 6,000 head a day, which is no SMALL NUMBER. Now granted, most on here don't buy alot of conventional beef. But this plant processed about 5% of the total beef processed daily, and is about 20% of Tyson's production.
What I am trying to get across is this is going to devastate the "fat cattle ", markets and prices, and it is going to trickle down (actually pour down) to the feeder cattle market. Tyson has promised to pay all it's workers at this plant, 3500 total, their normal 40 hr work week wages and will ask that they help with the cleanup, and that they are going to rebuild. But think of this.... farmers that finish beef for plants for slaughter.... will have all these cattle contracted to go , and now Tyson and other slaughter houses will be trying to absorb all these animals. It wouldn't be so bad except there have been several plants that have closed over the years, and this plant, as are MOST in this country, are operating at 80-90% of capacity..... so it will not be easy to absorb these cattle. It will mean weights will be higher as cattle are moved more slowly.... and the fat cattle prices fell today the max that is set by the "boards" that control all these futures and commodity traders and such.
So, there goes any hope of a fair to decent price for our feeders this fall. It will really hurt the cull cow prices as they just won't be wanting cull cows with the backlog of fat cattle to go to kill. The feeders we sell will be in less demand as farmers that feed them will have cattle moving out more slowly..... Less demand means lower prices.

The only saving grace is that there are more acres of corn that finally got planted since the update in early July. Thoughts were that if it was less than 86 million acres that corn prices would be higher so feeder cattle prices would be lower. If it was in the normal of 88 million acres it wouldn't hurt feeders. It is projected that there is 90 million acres so the corn prices should be lower, if it all gets harvested before frost hurts it. Some is pretty late so may not make a good ear but that remains to be seen.
But with the huge fire, it is making things not look good for us with feeder cattle coming off cows.

I plan to go to our local sale on Friday. Was going to go and check out prices as we were talking about shipping these steers in the next week or 2. Now they might get weaned and put on grass and some grain for awhile, and give the whole system a chance to see how this situation will balance out. Hopefully the guy will still be interested in the heifers.... but at what price?
Going to be a real game changer for the next 6-10 months at least. Many of our cattle in this area go to Penn. feeders, but they will be affected some by this plant too, so it is going to be a widespread ripple in the beef industry.

 

[Baymule]

Oh, that's not good. The domino effect will be felt by our small producers of cattle. You are right about one thing though, most on this forum produce their own meat, in one form or another. Most of us won't feel the pinch as we can butcher a chicken, rabbit, lamb, goat, pig or some of us even have our own beef.

God Bless you for sharing the wealth of meat with some that you know will be grateful to have it.

 

[Senile_Texas_Aggie]

Gosh, Miss @farmerjan, it seems like you can never get a break! As Gilda Radner put it, "it's always something!" Miss @Baymule is right -- that is mighty goodhearted of you to help out others. "For I was hungry, and you fed me..."

 

[farmerjan]

Just a quick update, the plant has had some in inspecting it and it seems that it was not damaged as badly as thought. The flames were huge, if you go on Finney County fire at Tyson plant, the TV stations had live pictures of the fire. You would have thought the whole coun ty was going up in flames. It seems that this was contained more than originally thought, WHICH IS GREAT. Instead of being MONTHS and months, it may be a lot less time down. Many other parts of the plant were directly affected. The thoughts are is that there was a great deal of electrical damage and that is what is going to take the time, but there are already companies from around the country that have worked on/in plants like this that Tyson is bringing in.

So KUDOS to them. They are surely doing part of it from a strictly financial perspective.....they are losing mega money for every day it is shut down.
Our feeder markets did take a hit yesterday, and it will continue to not be great for awhile. Fat cattle lost the max allowed by law to drop in one day, and will probably take several more days of hits.
If you see bargains on meat, take advantage of them. They may have to do that a bit to get the meat moved out because as these cattle get absorbed into the system, they will be heavier, and there will be more meat. If China continues to insist that they will NOT BUY ANY agricultural products, we will continue to scramble for alternative markets.

We've had some crazy weather again. Woke to clouds and shortly thereafter, a nice light steady rain for a couple of hours. About .2 inch in 3-4 hours. Then partly sunny and clouds, then when I was in the barn testing this eve, it turned black, THUNDER, and DOWNPOURS. Lasted about an hour. Soaked everything at the barn. Then some sun in the west coming through the clouds, shining in the parlor, yet it was raining on top of us. CRAZY !!!!!!

The bigger cornish x did start picking on the younger ones, I kinda figured they would. I put all the smaller ones in a small pen, will have to change things around tomorrow. Let the bigger ones out loose this afternoon, and they looked like drowned soggy chickens tonight. Temps hit 87 but it was so muggy. Still at 76 at 11 pm. Supposed to be more, hot again tomorrow with showers/t-storms again.
Going back to this dairy in the morning, need to get into bed, but don't have to get up til about 4:15 or so to be there by 5:15 and it is only 15-20 min away.

Oh well, weather is good for the grass/hay/pastures, and the sorghum/sudan second growth, and to get the ears well filled out on our 15 acres of corn. We'll take it but I sure hope I am not sweating like in a sauna in the morning like I did this afternoon.

 

[Mini Horses]

Those systems coming my way now. Off & on showers, T-storms, next 3 days or so. Prepped for it tonight but, lucky and only a short, light shower. A good amount was reported to stay slightly North of me, hope that turns out to be true. Some rain good -- too much isn't, as you kknow.

Home the Tyson facility gets back on-line sooner than later.

Like you with the other people work -- kind of tired of it. Some days you just aren't in the mood. I'm rescheduling from yesterday when I stayed home because of truck repairs. That's done but, by time it was, too late to start the job. Worked today and scheduled for rest of week. Not feeling like I want to be. Goat auction Sat, so going to load some up for that.

 

[AmberLops]

Here's a link to the turmeric I buy. It works so well and I use it for my dogs and rabbits when they need it
https://www.amazon.com/Organic-Turm...=gateway&sprefix=best+turmeric,aps,179&sr=8-4

 

[Senile_Texas_Aggie]

but don't have to get up til about 4:15

Wow! A sleep-in day!

 

[farmerjan]

LOL.... but yes, at one time that would have been a sleep in morning. Now, with not testing near as much with farms cutting back, and selling out, I don't have near as many early ones. I have found that I also am tired of the early morning hours. Too many years of doing it . I like it when I don't set any alarms and actually wake up after 6-7 a.m. But I also have found that I don't get tired as early, and don't get to bed as early, so it isn't all good. I should get up and get going earlier rather than later just because of the heat.

 

[Mini Horses]

Your body changes. I find I sleep less at night BUT sure could enjoy a short siesta mid day.
Tastebuds change, also. Hey, roll with it.

 

[farmerjan]

Yes, @Mini Horses , I don't sleep as much at night and get tired quicker in the day. Mostly, I don't want to get up and get going in the morning. I also attribute that to the joints hurting.... and it takes a little time for anything I take to kick in to take the worst "off". I am not looking forward to any kind of surgery.... but I am looking forward to the ankle replacement if that makes sense.... because if I get the relief they say, and can walk with it painfree, then I will be chomping to get the knee(s) done..... the right knee is the worst from the accident in 2007 and the torn medial meniscus that they did the arthroscopy on.
Thanks for the link for the turmeric, @AmberLops ; I am going to order it and see if it has the magical properties to help me a bit.....

The Finney Co fire at the Tyson plant in Ks, has been assessed and is not as bad as first thought. But, it has caused the price of "fat cattle" to drop from about 1.11 a week ago to right at 1.00 this week. That's a loss of 110. per head on the fat cattle at 1,000 lbs....Which they usually weigh more in the 12-1400 lb size. The feeders have taken a hit too, even though our 5 wts won't be in the pipeline for a YEAR, to get to slaughter weight. In the meantime, now they are saying that there will be a SHORTAGE of beef available, and the cost of "boxed beef" went up over 7.00 .....so they are playing it both ways to make the processors even more money. One of the cattle analysts that I listen to frequently is saying that because there are so few processors left, and only 4 major meat marketers... that they are controlling it so that it won't be long that the small producer....like us..... will not be able to compete and the beef cattle will go the way of the poultry and hog markets where the companies will control it from birth to death..... from the cow/calf producers, all the way through the feeders, to the finishers. And we will only be raising their cattle for them....just be employees that they will control. Which is what has happened to the poultry world, and mostly to the hog world too. There has been talk of this before, and with the prices not barely paying for the cost of keeping the cow for the year, and so many farmers getting out as they age, and no one wanting to work that hard all the time for subsistence wages, it is not surprising that it looks like the beef cattle industry will slowly go the way of the poultry/hog industries. I know we are getting to the point of "is it worth working so hard" anymore.
Sad that even the ones in the "full time business" are starting to wonder how it is that we are in this position to where the buyers are so few that they can manipulate the markets that much. There is not the competition, the slaughter houses have closed down as bigger companies buy them out and then close the smaller ones, and then companies like Smithfield, sell out to foreign companies, like china, and they then can control what is available, and the prices they will pay for hogs. It is slowly coming unless we can stop some of it now. R-Calf has brought a lawsuit , against some of these companies and I really think they are the only ones really for the beef cattle farmer/rancher. The National Cattleman's assoc sure isn't for the little guy.